Flagstaff AZ Real Estate Market Data Provided by The Kelly Broaddus Real Estate Advisors Team / by Joselyn Uy
September 2018 Flagstaff Home Sales Suffer Steep Drop, Sees 1% Decline in Home Price
We hope that fall is off to a great start for you and your families. Like the falling leaves of trees, the home sales downtrend continues. US home sales fell after a month of stagnation in August while The Flagstaff market declined for the third straight month. This turnaround is being fueled by mortgage rates which have hit a 7-year high and Flagstaff inventory levels which remain low at the lower price range. Weather also plays a factor up here in the mountains and this week we got our first measurable snowfall.
SEPTEMBER HOME SALES TUMBLE
This September, Flagstaff housing sales in the greater Flagstaff region dropped 38% compared to the same month a year ago. There were a total of 100 houses sold.
For the third quarter, home sales dropped 16% but the Flagstaff real estate market still posted a 2% growth for the first 9 months of the year.
The Kelly Broaddus Team also felt the pinch with only 2 closings, under 1M total sales vs 11M in August. Note that homebuyers have not disappeared, numbers are actually greater than the same month last year but there simply is not enough inventory at their price range.
FLAGSTAFF HOME PRICE
Prices for the month declined, dropping 1% with the median sale price coming in at $380K down from $383K last year.
For the third quarter prices were unchanged. Year-to-date (1st 9 months) we posted a new price high at $385,000, up 3% from the same period a year ago
While no one can predict the future with certainty, most experts expect to see modest growth in the U.S. housing market for the remainder of this year and next.
Flagstaff Home Buyer Advice
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased more than 80 basis pts this year, however, we’re starting to see prices starting to level off because inventory numbers are getting a little bit better. If more inventory comes to the market, not only will it impact pricing. Buyers that are out there right now and the only thing holding them up is the house to buy, as inventory increases that will help both first-time buyers and move up buyers.
Inventory level for starter homes is down a bit vs last month and is still far from what is needed to satisfy the demand for affordable/starter home where homebuyer demand is strongest.
- $200k- $400K, inventory is up at almost 6% vs last month, but still at less than 3 months supply. It's a seller's market at this price range. A balanced market has 6 months supply of homes for sale.
- $400K- $500K, down by 3% with only 4 months supply.
- Above $500K, we have over 6 months of supply. No shortage here. The number of homes that are in the high category are at $900- $1.1M and above $1.3M.
If you’re buying at the lower price range, having fewer homes on the market could present a few challenges. Don’t worry! I can help you come up with a strategy to find your next home. With winter right around the corner, expect to see quite a few more price reductions as sellers become more willing to negotiate.
Flagstaff Home Seller Advice
Do you have a home listed? Are you getting frustrated because it has not sold yet? Many on-market listings are seeing price cuts, though these price cuts are concentrated at the more expensive price-points.
Our advice to home sellers:
If you are not in a hurry to get your home sold, sit down with your agent about the best way to go about getting it sold. A few agents may recommend to get it off the market, do necessary upgrades and list back before the summer selling season begins.
Homeowners, the Home Price Expectation Survey said we’re going to end this year at about 5.9 percent. That’s what the annual appreciation will be this year. Next year, your home price appreciation is expected to be above average, at 4.2 percent.
September 2018 Flagstaff Market Watch Summary
Total Home Sales- 100 homes, down 38% vs September 2017.
Median Home Price- $380,000 down 1% vs September 2017
Mortgage rates up - A 30 year fixed rate mortgage with 5% down and very good credit rose to an average of 4.85%. This rate has reached its 7 year high.
Longest days on market: 951 days. The most expensive home that sold last month was also the record holder for longest days on market. It was listed for over 2 and a half years before it went under contract. Flagstaff luxury homes priced over 1.4M typically stay on the market for 8-9 months on the average.
CDOM The acronym CDOM (Cumulative Days on Market) is used by the Flagstaff MLS to describe how many days a property has been available for sale. A property has to be off the MLS for at least 90 days for the CDOM to restart, even if it is listed by a different agent. We report the average days on market for properties sold based on CDOM.
The number of days a home sits on the market can tell us a lot about pricing. A high CDOM is commonly a strong indicator that the home is overpriced.
Flagstaff's Priciest Luxury Homes (SOLD)
- $2,170,000 - The most expensive home sold that sold in September 2018 is a custom luxury log home in Forest Highlands with 6 bedrooms, 6.5 baths, with stunning views of the fairway and the San Francisco Peaks. Originally priced at 2.99M.
- $922,000 This Pine Canyon townhome with panoramic golf course views is#1 on the list of priciest townhome sold in September.
The most AFFORDABLE Flagstaff Homes (SOLD)
- Mobile home - $110,000 - A fully furnished mobile home with campfire area in Kachina, a great summer retreat for the new homeowner
- Manufactured home - $207,000 - Located in a quiet cul-de-sac in Kachina, this single level 3 bedroom home is 50K pricier than last month's most affordable manufactured home. The living area is 2x bigger.
- Single-family - $270,000 - A nice 4 bedroom home on 2.5 acres located in east rural Flagstaff in the Timberline Area Pocket neighborhood
- Townhouse - $200,000 - Christmas Tree Estates townhome with a private patio, fully fenced backyard and a dog park right out front
- Condo - $145,000 - 1 bedroom Tanglewood condo with access to Bear Paw and Continental Country Club amenities.
GET IN TOUCH
Wondering what all of this means for you? Kelly would be happy to discuss these numbers along with our local market conditions with you personally. Feel free to call with any questions or for a complete home and market evaluation. Please contact us at 888.446.5602 or email email@example.com with any questions you might have about this report of the Flagstaff real estate market. Contact Us
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