Flagstaff AZ Real Estate Market Data Provided by The Kelly Broaddus Real Estate Advisors Team / by Joselyn Uy

July 2019 Flagstaff Market Report

 

Experts Predict A Stronger Market in the Second Half of the Year

This week we saw some major signals of a recession and also, some data indicating that a recession won’t happen. The volatility in the U.S. stock market and in global economies continues to stoke fear, but that’s partly caused a boom in the housing industry. What can you expect if you’re entering the market this fall? See our analysis below. Have a wonderful Labor Day weekend!

 

HOME SALES

The US existing home sales climb 2.5% in July after total sales were down slightly in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Greater Flagstaff total housing sales number for the month was 145, up 28% from a year ago. This is the most sales we’ve had in July, in 14 years. In July of 2005, there were 152 sales but back then the median sale price was only $329K. Helping boost sales and prices are lower mortgage rates.

July 2019 was a slower month for the Kelly Broaddus Team compared to the fast and furious closings of the past 3 months. We were able to help 2 home sellers and 3 homebuyers close on their dream home last month.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

July housing prices in the greater Flagstaff region hit another new high, with the median sale price coming in at $445K. This is up 16% from July ’18. The average price paid per-square-foot this July was $224.00 which is not quite the high, that being $227psf in ’06.

US Home Prices were up year-over-year for the seventh month in a row. The CoreLogic Home Price Index for June 2019 showed that Arizona home prices increased 5.8% from a year ago. 

DOWNLOAD THE FULL MARKET REPORT HERE

RECESSION FEARS

What Effect Could a Recession Have on U.S. Real Estate? Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale addresses what, if any, effect that would have on the housing market. 

 

There is a very good possibility we're going to have a recession in the next 18 months. Of course, we’re not going to be able to keep on going with this recovery forever. Are we going to see a repeat of 2008 where home prices drop 19.7 percent? Short answer is NO.

The same people that projected the recession was coming also said prices are not going to depreciate. Appreciation is going to decelerate, but prices are still going to go up. So, the crash that we saw in 2008 - the people actually predicting the recession are saying we’re not going to see that again. All we’re going to see is a slowdown in the amount or the percentage that homes are going up, not that they’re going to depreciate.

And Morgan Housel, a well-renowned financial analyst - I like what he said: “An interesting thing is a widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”

July 2019 Flagstaff Market Watch Summary

2019 Flagstaff Real Estate Market Watch Total Home Sales -   145 homes (SF),   up 28% vs July 2018. 

Median Home Price -  $445,000 (SF),  up 15% vs July 2018

Mortgage rates  - A 30 year fixed rate mortgage with 5% down and very good credit is now at an average of 3.85%

Longest days on market (SF):  521 days

CDOM The acronym CDOM (Cumulative Days on Market) is used by the Flagstaff MLS to describe how many days a property has been available for sale. A property has to be off the MLS for at least 90 days for the CDOM to restart, even if it is listed by a different agent. We report the average days on market for properties sold based on CDOM.

The number of days a home sits on the market can tell us a lot about pricing. A high CDOM is commonly a strong indicator that the home is overpriced. 

Flagstaff's Priciest Homes SOLD in JULY 2019

  • $1,715,000  - Beautiful custom luxury cabin in Forest Highlands with 4568 sq ft of space
  • $529,205  -  Last month's priciest townhome is another 3 bedroom townhome in the Switzer Mesa area, new build, master on the main, open layout with gorgeous mountain views 
  • $243,000 -  2 bedroom Aspen Village condo located off of Lake Mary Rd. This condo is close to NAU, CCC, downtown Flagstaff, shopping and hiking trails!

The most AFFORDABLE  Flagstaff Homes Sold in JULY 2019

  • $150,000 - One-bedroom single-family in the White Horse Park area. This beautiful rustic cabin in the shadow of Humphrey's Peak can be a getaway in the summer or a year-round home
  • $190,000 - another 4 bedroom townhouse in Christmas Tree
  • $167,500 -  1 bedroom University Heights condo with community amenities:  24-hour fitness center, yoga studio, volleyball and basketball courts, a children's play area and more

 

Flagstaff Home Buyer Advice 

Recession Not Equal To Housing Crisis

In the last recession, prices drop 19.7 percent. But, if we look at the four previous recessions, three of the four times, prices went up, two of those three times, they went up almost double the normal historical average, and the other time that it dropped, priced dropped, they dropped by less than two percent. 

Buyers can expect higher prices. However, interest rates remain in your favor. After several weeks of significant declines, mortgage rates increased moderately last week by .16%. However, this just brings us back to the same level we were at three weeks ago; with rates almost 1.0% lower than they were at the start of the year. Here's what you need to know about the mortgage process.

 

INVENTORY levels have risen but not by much, hovering at 3- 4 months supply. Many buyers are wondering where to find affordable houses for sale in today’s market. It’s a true dilemma. We see an increase in buyer demand, but the supply available for purchase isn’t keeping up. 

Check out the latest list of Flagstaff homes for sale under $300K. There are 120+ houses available in the $300K to $400,000 range and 60+ houses available to purchase in the $400K to $450K range. If you’re buying at the lower price range, having fewer homes on the market could present a few challenges. Don’t worry! I can help you come up with a strategy to find your next home. Let's talk about your situation in person! Call Kelly at 888.446.5602

 

Flagstaff Home Seller Advice 

FORECAST If you’re considering selling your home to move up, now is a great time to get a positive return on your investment in a market with high demand. CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that US home prices will increase by 5.2% on a year-over-year basis from June 2019 to June 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.5% from June 2019 to July 2019.

CoreLogic HPI Forecast

If you’re thinking about selling now, let’s get started. From hiring the right real estate agent to handing over the keys, here is your step by step guide to the home selling process. Let’s get together to determine the specific options available for you and your family. Contact 928.606.6749 or email kelly.broaddus@exprealty.com if you are looking for a Northern Arizona realtor to help you buy/sell your Flagstaff/Sedona real estate and the surrounding areas. 

We at The Kelly Broaddus Team with eXp Realty know that the only result that ultimately matters is that your home gets sold — and sold for the right amount. Satisfied clients say it all. Check out our 5 Star Reviews.

 

 

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